MacroeconomicResearch
Ethiopia’s 2023-24 Budget
The Ethiopian Parliament approved last week a budget of Birr 802bn for the 2023- 24 fiscal year, an increase of just 2 percent from the previous year. The very restrained spending growth presented in the new budget is positive for reducing the deficit and for…
Ethiopia- Macroeconomic Handbook 2023
The Ethiopian economy stands at a critical juncture at the start of 2023, following two years of conflict that brought immense humanitarian, social, and material losses. In the face of major economic challenges, whether macro policies in the coming year take…
Ethiopia’s 2022-23 Budget
We review the recently approved Government Budget for the 2022-23 fiscal year and summarize below some of its most notable elements.…
Quarterly Macroeconomic Review–First Quarter 2022
Ethiopia’s economy faced six distinct shocks this past quarter, including major price spikes in global markets as well as domestic shocks linked to conflict and drought.…
Ethiopia- Macroeconomic Handbook 2022
With the conflict in Ethiopia turning out much more prolonged and devastating than many observers (including ourselves) anticipated, the Ethiopian macroeconomy has— for over a year now—found itself in a difficult war-time footing, facing immense humanitarian…
Macroeconomic Review–First Quarter 2021
While most macro indicators for the first quarter of 2021 showed a recovery from COVID- related shocks, the economic outlook has since become clouded by on-going impacts from the recent conflict, heightened geo-political tensions, and rising risks to external…
Ethiopia- Macroeconomic Handbook 2021
We expect Ethiopia’s macroeconomic conditions in 2021 will be shaped largely by developments in six key areas: covid, conflict, crops, credit, creditors, and currency. More specifically, how a number of questions surrounding these ‘six Cs’ are resolved (see…
Quarterly Macroeconomic Review-Fourth Quarter 2020
We largely retain the macro forecasts from our last quarterly review in November 2020, including our expectations for near-term growth (4.1% this year, 7.5% next year). Compared to our projections last quarter, we expect inflation will be slightly worse, the…
Ethiopia’s Treasury Bills Market
Ethiopia’s auction-based Treasury Bills Market turned one-year old this month. In this period, private banks and pension funds supplied Government with close to Birr 95bn in financing—equivalent to $3bn or 3% GDP—to help cover the budget deficit. Based on…
Ethiopia’s GDP Statistics
Ethiopia’s National Planning Commission recently released the final GDP estimates for the 2019-20 fiscal year that ended in June 2020. While the headline figure—of 6.1 percent real GDP growth—has been widely reported, other aspects have received less…
Quarterly Macro Review–Third Quarter 2020
The conflict that has broken out in Ethiopia over the past few weeks appears—based on recent developments—likely to be short-lived in its duration and confined in its geographic scope. Under these circumstances, adverse impacts on the macroeconomy should be…
Quarterly Macro Review–Second Quarter 2020
Contrary to most expectations following the onset of the COVID pandemic, Ethiopia’s macro data for the just ended fiscal year showed better-than-expected outturns in many areas, including in tax collections, bank lending, export/airline receipts, and…
Budget Review FY 2020-21
This note reviews the recently passed Government Budget for the 2020-21 fiscal year. Notable aspects of the budget include: (1) the Government’s expectations of still-strong growth this year (8.5% for GDP, 4.5% for imports); (2) the planned 20% increase in…
Quarterly Macroeconomic Review–First Quarter 2020
With the corona pandemic entering Ethiopia in March 2020, macroeconomic policies and priorities this past quarter have shifted sharply towards emergency economic measures that support large-scale public health interventions and limit damage to the real…
Macroeconomic Impacts of the Corona Virus: A Preliminary Assessment for Ethiopia
We make an effort to assess the likely impacts of the coronavirus for Ethiopia’s economic sub-sectors and for the near-term macro outlook. We find that even under a ‘limited virus spread scenario’ (where the dominant agricultural and construction sectors…
Ethiopia Macroeconomic Handbook 2020
As 2020 unfolds, Ethiopia’s political calendar is bringing an uncertain and unsettled environment to the economic outlook for the coming year. Amid this state of affairs, we decided to take stock of the many positive developments and hopeful trends emerging in Ethiopia’s…
Quarterly Macroeconomic Review Fourth Quarter 2019
Macroeconomic Review–Fourth Quarter 2019 Growth: Compared to last year’s 9 percent outturn, GDP growth should slow slightly this year due to some of the tightening measures being implemented to reduce credit growth to the government and state…
Ethiopia’s IMF Program
The Ethiopian Government announced yesterday its intention to seek the support of the IMF as part of a nearly $3bn loan package to be disbursed over the next three years. The agreement with the IMF is unambiguously positive, in our view, and will address head-on…
Quarterly Macroeconomic Review Third Quarter 2019
The third quarter of the year was marked by continued stresses in some of the economy’s usual weak spots (inflation, foreign exchange), but also by a very clear turnaround and improvement in multiple macro indicators (budget revenues, exports,…
Macroeconomic Data in Ethiopia: A Guide on Sources & Release Dates
This note reviews the sources, frequency, and timing of macroeconomic data releases in Ethiopia. We also compare Ethiopia’s record of macro data releases with that of other countries. As access to timely macro data will become…
Explaining Ethiopia’s Recent Inflation
We review the sources of the recent spike in Ethiopia’s inflation. To this end, we collected and tabulated the Central Statistical Authority’s monthly price data by detailed product lines (covering the 600-plus items that make up the…
Quarterly Macroeconomic Review Second Quarter 2019
Quarterly Macroeconomic Review: April—June 2019 The second quarter of 2019 showed a mixed set of developments on the macroeconomic front, with adverse outturns seen in some areas (inflation, exports, continued fx challenges) alongside…
Ethiopia’s 2019-20 Budget
This note summarizes the main contents of Ethiopia’s recently released government budget and highlights: (1) the policy priorities being articulated for the new fiscal year; (2) the composition of spending across key departments, and; (3) the…
Quarterly Macro Review
We expect GDP growth this year to be slightly lower, and inflation slightly higher, than we had previously projected but keep our forecasts for exchange rates, fx reserves, and public debt largely unchanged from those in our 2019…
Ethiopia Fiscal Review
We put together a data pack on Ethiopia’s recent fiscal performance, focusing on revenue performance over the past few years (including so far this year) and also taking a detailed look at the composition of government spending for the current budget…
Ethiopia’s Billion-Dollar Sovereign Bond: Recent Performance and Outlook
Ethiopia’s $1bn sovereign bond issued in December 2014 is the country’s sole debt instrument trading in global capital markets. We review its recent performance (prices and yields) and consider the outlook for this and other potential bond issues in the…
Ethiopia – Macroeconomic Handbook 2019
We put together ten questions often raised by investors during discussions of the Ethiopian macroeconomy and venture to provide some answers that reflect our views and thinking on these issues. We also provide an Appendix with 10 years of macroeconomic data…
MacroeconomicResearch
Ethiopia’s 2023-24 Budget
The Ethiopian Parliament approved last week a budget of Birr 802bn for the 2023- 24 fiscal year, an increase of just 2 percent from the previous year. The very restrained spending growth presented in the new budget is positive for reducing the deficit and for…
Ethiopia- Macroeconomic Handbook 2023
The Ethiopian economy stands at a critical juncture at the start of 2023, following two years of conflict that brought immense humanitarian, social, and material losses. In the face of major economic challenges, whether macro policies in the coming year take…
Ethiopia’s 2022-23 Budget
We review the recently approved Government Budget for the 2022-23 fiscal year and summarize below some of its most notable elements.…
Quarterly Macroeconomic Review–First Quarter 2022
Ethiopia’s economy faced six distinct shocks this past quarter, including major price spikes in global markets as well as domestic shocks linked to conflict and drought. o Global shocks: Four items—namely fuel, food, fertilizers, and freight—will be costing…
Ethiopia- Macroeconomic Handbook 2022
With the conflict in Ethiopia turning out much more prolonged and devastating than many observers (including ourselves) anticipated, the Ethiopian macroeconomy has— for over a year now—found itself in a difficult war-time footing, facing immense humanitarian…
Macroeconomic Review–First Quarter 2021
While most macro indicators for the first quarter of 2021 showed a recovery from COVID- related shocks, the economic outlook has since become clouded by on-going impacts from the recent conflict, heightened geo-political tensions, and rising risks to external…
Ethiopia- Macroeconomic Handbook 2021
We expect Ethiopia’s macroeconomic conditions in 2021 will be shaped largely by developments in six key areas: covid, conflict, crops, credit, creditors, and currency. More specifically, how a number of questions surrounding these ‘six Cs’ are resolved (see…
Quarterly Macroeconomic Review-Fourth Quarter 2020
We largely retain the macro forecasts from our last quarterly review in November 2020, including our expectations for near-term growth (4.1% this year, 7.5% next year). Compared to our projections last quarter, we expect inflation will be slightly worse, the…
Ethiopia’s Treasury Bills Market
Ethiopia’s auction-based Treasury Bills Market turned one-year old this month. In this period, private banks and pension funds supplied Government with close to Birr 95bn in financing—equivalent to $3bn or 3% GDP—to help cover the budget deficit. Based on…
Ethiopia’s GDP Statistics
Ethiopia’s National Planning Commission recently released the final GDP estimates for the 2019-20 fiscal year that ended in June 2020. While the headline figure—of 6.1 percent real GDP growth—has been widely reported, other aspects have received less…
Quarterly Macro Review–Third Quarter 2020
The conflict that has broken out in Ethiopia over the past few weeks appears—based on recent developments—likely to be short-lived in its duration and confined in its geographic scope. Under these circumstances, adverse impacts on the macroeconomy should be…
Quarterly Macro Review–Second Quarter 2020
Contrary to most expectations following the onset of the COVID pandemic, Ethiopia’s macro data for the just ended fiscal year showed better-than-expected outturns in many areas, including in tax collections, bank lending, export/airline receipts, and…
Budget Review FY 2020-21
This note reviews the recently passed Government Budget for the 2020-21 fiscal year. Notable aspects of the budget include: (1) the Government’s expectations of still-strong growth this year (8.5% for GDP, 4.5% for imports); (2) the planned 20% increase in…
Quarterly Macroeconomic Review–First Quarter 2020
With the corona pandemic entering Ethiopia in March 2020, macroeconomic policies and priorities this past quarter have shifted sharply towards emergency economic measures that support large-scale public health interventions and limit damage to the real…
Macroeconomic Impacts of the Corona Virus: A Preliminary Assessment for Ethiopia
We make an effort to assess the likely impacts of the coronavirus for Ethiopia’s economic sub-sectors and for the near-term macro outlook. We find that even under a ‘limited virus spread scenario’ (where the dominant agricultural and construction sectors…
Ethiopia Macroeconomic Handbook 2020
As 2020 unfolds, Ethiopia’s political calendar is bringing an uncertain and unsettled environment to the economic outlook for the coming year. Amid this state of affairs, we decided to take stock of the many positive developments and hopeful trends emerging in…
Ethiopia’s IMF Program
The Ethiopian Government announced yesterday its intention to seek the support of the IMF as part of a nearly $3bn loan package to be disbursed over the next three years. The agreement with the IMF is unambiguously positive, in our view, and will address head-on…
Macroeconomic Data in Ethiopia: A Guide on Sources & Release Dates
This note reviews the sources, frequency, and timing of macroeconomic data releases in Ethiopia. We also compare Ethiopia’s record of macro data releases with that of other countries. As access to timely macro data will become…
Explaining Ethiopia’s Recent Inflation
We review the sources of the recent spike in Ethiopia’s inflation. To this end, we collected and tabulated the Central Statistical Authority’s monthly price data by detailed product lines (covering the 600-plus items that make up the…
Quarterly Macroeconomic Review Second Quarter 2019
Quarterly Macroeconomic Review: April—June 2019 The second quarter of 2019 showed a mixed set of developments on the macroeconomic front, with adverse outturns seen in some areas (inflation, exports, continued fx challenges) alongside…
Ethiopia’s 2019-20 Budget
This note summarizes the main contents of Ethiopia’s recently released government budget and highlights: (1) the policy priorities being articulated for the new fiscal year; (2) the composition of spending across key departments, and; (3) the…
Quarterly Macro Review
We expect GDP growth this year to be slightly lower, and inflation slightly higher, than we had previously projected but keep our forecasts for exchange rates, fx reserves, and public debt largely unchanged from those in our 2019…
Ethiopia Fiscal Review
We put together a data pack on Ethiopia’s recent fiscal performance, focusing on revenue performance over the past few years (including so far this year) and also taking a detailed look at the composition of government spending for the current budget…
Ethiopia’s Billion-Dollar Sovereign Bond: Recent Performance and Outlook
Ethiopia’s $1bn sovereign bond issued in December 2014 is the country’s sole debt instrument trading in global capital markets. We review its recent performance (prices and yields) and consider the outlook for this and other potential bond issues in the…
Ethiopia – Macroeconomic Handbook 2019
We put together ten questions often raised by investors during discussions of the Ethiopian macroeconomy and venture to provide some answers that reflect our views and thinking on these issues. We also provide an Appendix with 10 years of macroeconomic data…
SectorResearch
Ethiopia’s Trade Review FY 2021-22
We tabulate recently released data on Ethiopia’s exports and imports in the just completed fiscal year, and summarize below our main observations….. Read the ReviewShare
Ethiopia’s Digital Economy
We review the digital economy landscape in Ethiopia and cover in this report the scope of services offered, companies involved, activity indicators, stand-out cases, funding trends, cross-country comparisons, policy environment, current market size, and…
Ethiopia Trade Review: 2019-20
We tabulate recently released data on the composition of Ethiopia’s exports and imports, and summarize below our main observations… Read the ReviewShare
Industrial Parks Overview–2019-20
We review the 2019-20 performance of Ethiopia’s industrial parks, which now consist of 10 active sites, 189 companies, and 71,000 employees. On the positive front, industrial park exports rose 16 percent to $165mn this past year and they now make up…
Ethiopia’s Banking Sector—2019-20
With provisional 2019-20 results for Ethiopia’s banks recently becoming available, this note reviews the sector’s latest performance, notable trends, and near-term outlook. We find that the banking sector has so far come out of the COVID pandemic in…
Trade Review: 2018/19
We tabulate recently released data on the composition of Ethiopia’s exports and imports by partner country and by product category. Our main observations are summarized below… Read the ReviewShare
Ease of Doing Business in Ethiopia: Issues, Reforms, and Progress
Improving the ease of doing business has been singled out as one of the priority areas for economic reform in Ethiopia this past year. Based on publicly released information from the EIC and other involved agencies, this short note covers the range of…
Ethiopia’s Industrial Parks: A Data Pack on recent performance
We review the status and performance of Ethiopia’s industrial parks and compile a data pack—based on EIC statistics—showing latest figures on the number of active firms, invested capital, employment, and exports… Read the ReviewShare
Ethiopia’s Banking Sector
We take a deep-dive into Ethiopia’s banking sector and cover—across the following 70 pages—its macroeconomic contribution, recent performance, service offerings, regulatory environment, income sources, market structure, profitability rankings, bank-by-bank…
A Financing Map of Ethiopia: The funding landscape for future growth
We review the scale and scope of the financing universe in Ethiopia, focusing on its size and composition; funding sources and users; domestic versus foreign components; and finally the most promising untapped and under-exploited opportunities for the years…
SectorResearch
Ethiopia’s Trade Review FY 2021-22
We tabulate recently released data on Ethiopia’s exports and imports in the just completed fiscal year, and summarize below our main observations….. Read the ReviewShare
Ethiopia’s Digital Economy
We review the digital economy landscape in Ethiopia and cover in this report the scope of services offered, companies involved, activity indicators, stand-out cases, funding trends, cross-country comparisons, policy environment, current market size, and…
Ethiopia Trade Review: 2019-20
We tabulate recently released data on the composition of Ethiopia’s exports and imports, and summarize below our main observations… Read the ReviewShare
Industrial Parks Overview–2019-20
We review the 2019-20 performance of Ethiopia’s industrial parks, which now consist of 10 active sites, 189 companies, and 71,000 employees. On the positive front, industrial park exports rose 16 percent to $165mn this past year and they now make up…
Ethiopia’s Banking Sector—2019-20
With provisional 2019-20 results for Ethiopia’s banks recently becoming available, this note reviews the sector’s latest performance, notable trends, and near-term outlook. We find that the banking sector has so far come out of the COVID pandemic in…
Ease of Doing Business in Ethiopia: Issues, Reforms, and Progress
Improving the ease of doing business has been singled out as one of the priority areas for economic reform in Ethiopia this past year. Based on publicly released information from the EIC and other involved agencies, this short note covers the range of…
Ethiopia’s Industrial Parks: A Data Pack on recent performance
We review the status and performance of Ethiopia’s industrial parks and compile a data pack—based on EIC statistics—showing latest figures on the number of active firms, invested capital, employment, and exports… Read the ReviewShare
Ethiopia’s Banking Sector
We take a deep-dive into Ethiopia’s banking sector and cover—across the following 70 pages—its macroeconomic contribution, recent performance, service offerings, regulatory environment, income sources, market structure, profitability rankings, bank-by-bank…
A Financing Map of Ethiopia: The funding landscape for future growth
We review the scale and scope of the financing universe in Ethiopia, focusing on its size and composition; funding sources and users; domestic versus foreign components; and finally the most promising untapped and under-exploited opportunities for the years…
Ethiopia Trade Review
Recent trade performance shows that America is now the largest market for Ethiopian exports, taking in 9 percent of total exports. For imports, China remains the largest source, as has been the case for the past 16 years. Please read full report. Read the…
