The conflict that has broken out in Ethiopia over the past few weeks appears—based on recent developments—likely to be short-lived in its duration and confined in its geographic scope. Under these circumstances, adverse impacts on the macroeconomy should be quite limited, in our view, especially since Government is also pushing ahead with key economic reforms, including privatization. While we will revisit our macro projections more fully in early 2021, in line with evolving developments, this note presents the tentative signs of a V-shaped recovery that were emerging before the conflict arose…