Macroeconomic Review–Fourth Quarter 2019
Growth: Compared to last year’s 9 percent outturn, GDP growth should slow slightly this year due to some of the tightening measures being implemented to reduce credit growth to the government and state enterprises. However, as recent agriculture data show a solid harvest (up almost 5 percent) and various proxies for construction and service activity point to near double-digit expansion in these large sub-sectors, we don’t expect a major slowdown and see a decent chance that growth will reach 8 percent for the year. The IMF…

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